METHODOLOGY / PROVENANCE
How the observatory works
Singularity Compass separates forecasts, maturity, actor priority and system constraints. Each answers a different question and must not be read as the same scale.
THE THREE TOP-LEVEL NUMBERS
Three questions, not one score
Example: an 81% ASI probability does not mean we are 81% of the way to ASI. Probability is a forecast; readiness is a maturity assessment.
PROCESS
Evidence → score → forecast
Each domain has explicit anchors and weighted components.
Primary papers, repositories, benchmarks, registries and independent confirmation determine evidence quality.
Components are scored individually with written rationale; the domain score is the weighted composite.
Scores change only when new evidence materially changes one or more components. Method changes are versioned separately.
EVIDENCE LADDER
Verification states
Single-source signal, social post, demo or claim not yet independently verified.
Official announcement or primary claim with enough detail to assess, but limited external validation.
Paper, repository, benchmark, trial record or primary technical evidence supports the claim.
Credible third parties reproduce, verify or independently corroborate the result.
Formal expert review materially supports the result.
The capability or finding is repeatable under independent or repeated conditions.
MODEL NOTES
What the numbers do — and do not — mean
Each domain has explicit 0, 50 and 100 anchors. Scores across different domains are not interchangeable because the operational endpoint differs by frontier.
An ASI could exist without age-reversal therapies or neural implants. Progress in those fields therefore must not mechanically change a direct ASI-enabling index.
Longevity and BCI can radically change human capability, lifespan and interaction with advanced AI, so they belong in the broader transformation index.
A sourced state-of-the-art description is maintained independently from recent events. No new event does not mean no capability exists.
Compute, Energy/Fusion and Advanced Materials are tracked as enabling frontiers. Synthetic Biology is a broader transformation frontier. They affect constraints and interpretation but do not silently alter versioned formulas.
Actor watch scores answer who deserves attention first. They are not arithmetic inputs to domain maturity and can move while domain readiness stays unchanged.
Severity estimates how constraining a problem is today; progress estimates how far the constraint has been relieved; ASI impact estimates how much removing it could matter.