FORECAST%
ASI Probability
Will ASI exist within this time horizon?
A probability estimate for 1, 2, 3, 5 or 10 years. It incorporates current evidence, expected future progress and uncertainty.
HOW THE OBSERVATORY WORKS
Methodology
Singularity Compass separates forecasts, maturity, actor priority and system constraints. Each answers a different question and must not be read as the same scale.
THE THREE TOP-LEVEL NUMBERS
Three questions, not one score
TECHNOLOGY MATURITY/100
ASI Readiness
How mature is the technology stack that could produce ASI?
Intelligence & autonomy 50% + AI for Science 30% + Robotics 20%. Additional enablers are tracked separately so the versioned core index remains historically comparable.
BROADER TRANSFORMATION/100
Singularity Readiness
How advanced is the broader AI + human transformation?
ASI Readiness 70% + Longevity 15% + BCI/HMI 15%. Other transformative frontiers are monitored as overlays until an explicit methodology version changes the formula.
Example: an 81% ASI probability does not mean we are “81% of the way to ASI”. A 59/100 ASI Readiness score is a maturity assessment, while the probability is a forecast about whether ASI will exist within a time window.
Define
Each domain has explicit 0, 50 and 100 anchors and a fixed set of weighted components.
Verify
Primary papers, repositories, benchmarks, clinical registries, technical documentation and independent confirmation determine evidence quality.
Score
Components are scored individually with written rationales. The domain score is their weighted composite.
Update
Scores change only when new evidence materially changes one or more components. Changes to the scoring framework are separated from real technological movement.
EVIDENCE LADDER
Verification states
Preliminary
Single-source signal, social post, demo or claim not yet independently verified.
Announced
Official announcement or primary claim with enough detail to assess, but limited external validation.
Primary confirmed
Paper, repository, benchmark, trial record or primary technical evidence supports the claim.
Independently confirmed
Credible third parties reproduce, verify or independently corroborate the result.
Peer reviewed
Formal expert review materially supports the result.
Reproduced
The capability or finding is repeatable under independent or repeated conditions.
A
Domain maturity 0–100
0 means the relevant capability is essentially absent. 50 is a domain-specific midpoint with meaningful real capability but major unresolved gaps. 100 is the explicit endpoint shown on each domain page. The exact anchors differ by domain, so scores across different frontiers are not interchangeable.
B
Why Longevity and BCI are outside ASI Readiness
An ASI could exist without age-reversal therapies or neural implants. Including them in ASI Readiness would therefore make unrelated progress or setbacks change a score intended to measure the direct ASI-enabling stack.
C
Why they are inside Singularity Readiness
Longevity and BCI can radically change what humans are able to do, how long they live and how directly they interact with advanced AI. They therefore belong in the broader Singularity Readiness index even though they are not ASI prerequisites.
D
State of the art vs recent signals
Each domain page keeps a sourced description of the current technological state even when no new event has occurred. Recent signals are shown separately so “nothing changed today” is never confused with “nothing exists in this field.”
E
Broad frontiers are overlays, not silent formula changes
Compute, Energy / Fusion and Advanced Materials are tracked as enabling frontiers. Synthetic Biology is tracked as a broader civilization-transformation frontier. They can affect bottlenecks, forecast rationale, actor priority and our interpretation of the system, but they do not silently alter the current ASI Readiness or Singularity Readiness weights. Any future formula change must introduce a new methodology version and an explicit historical break.
F
Watch Priority is not maturity
Actor rankings answer “who deserves attention first?”. Watch Priority is 35% potential impact + 30% execution evidence + 20% momentum + 15% strategic position. A high score does not mean an actor will win, and actor rankings can move while a domain maturity score stays unchanged.
G
Bottleneck severity and progress
The Bottleneck Map tracks system constraints separately from maturity. Severity estimates how constraining a problem is today; lower is better. Progress estimates how far the constraint has been relieved; higher is better. ASI Impact describes how much removing that constraint could matter to the direct ASI path. No single headline is enough to move these values materially.