Broad superiority
Substantially beyond the best humans across most strategically important cognitive domains, not just one benchmark.
ASI
What exactly are we tracking?
Singularity Compass defines Artificial Superintelligence as an artificial system — or tightly integrated system of systems — whose general cognitive capability substantially exceeds the best human capability across most domains that matter for science, technology and decision-making.
Autonomous research
Able to generate hypotheses, use tools, run research loops and validate results with little human steering.
Cross-domain generalization
Knowledge and methods transfer reliably across science, engineering, software, strategy and unfamiliar tasks.
Self-acceleration
AI materially improves the research and engineering that produces better future AI systems.
CURRENT FORECAST
Probability ASI exists within…
2%
2032–336%
2032–3312%
2032–3330%
2032–3381%
2032–33A superhuman result on one benchmark, one scientific problem, one coding task or one robot demo is not ASI by itself.
ASI may emerge gradually across models, agents, tools and robotics. The observatory therefore tracks operational criteria rather than company labels.
Probability asks whether ASI will exist within a time horizon. Readiness asks how mature the direct enabling capabilities are today.