SINGULARITY COMPASS
OBSERVATORY DEGRADED

Semantic review is behind discovery. Evidence and Pulse may be incomplete until the backlog is cleared.

2 material first-party/frontier/open-problem candidate(s) have waited more than 6 hours for semantic review.

0 critical overdue · 2 material overdue
Last semantic import 19 Sept, 04:12

ASI DEFINITION & FORECAST

What exactly is being forecast?

Singularity Compass defines Artificial Superintelligence as an artificial system — or tightly integrated system of systems — whose general cognitive capability substantially exceeds the best human capability across most domains that matter for science, technology and decision-making.

CURRENT FORECAST

Probability ASI exists within…

Rolling horizons · analytical estimate
1 YEAR
2%0.0 pp

2032–33 · confidence 40%

2 YEAR
6%0.0 pp

2032–33 · confidence 42%

3 YEAR
12%0.0 pp

2032–33 · confidence 45%

5 YEAR
30%0.0 pp

2032–33 · confidence 48%

10 YEAR
81%0.0 pp

2032–33 · confidence 50%

ASI Readiness 59.03/100Readiness is not probabilityMethod ↗

OPERATIONAL CRITERIA

Four properties that matter

01

Broad superiority

Substantially beyond the best humans across most strategically important cognitive domains, rather than on one benchmark.

02

Autonomous research

Able to generate hypotheses, use tools, run research loops and validate results with little human steering.

03

Cross-domain generalization

Knowledge and methods transfer reliably across science, engineering, software, strategy and unfamiliar tasks.

04

Self-acceleration

AI materially improves the research and engineering process that produces better future AI systems.