59.03Δ 0.00
Capability-readiness index
CURRENT SYSTEM STATE
A public record of evidence, uncertainty and movement toward ASI.
The observatory separates what happened from what it means. Evidence is recorded first; readiness and forecasts move only when that evidence materially changes the model.
53.19Δ 0.00
Broader transformation index
30%Δ 0.00 pp
Rolling probability estimate
81%Central 2032–33
Rolling probability estimate
WHAT CHANGED
Only material score movement
AI for Science59.0 / 100Δ +0.90Protein-binder validation update: Autonomous Research Loops 54→56 and Experimental Integration 42→44; Novel Result Generation, Reasoning and Independent Verification unchanged.
Synthetic Biology66.8 / 100Δ +0.80Clinical-validation update only: Intismeran Phase 3 melanoma endpoints move Real-World Validation 66→69; no change to Design / Editing, Delivery / Control or Closed-Loop Automation.
LATEST MATERIAL EVIDENCE
Evidence register
18 Sept 2026Intelligence
Anthropic and Accenture launch embedded frontier-AI safety evaluation partnership
Anthropic and Accenture announced a partnership to place dedicated external evaluators alongside Anthropic teams for model evaluation, red-teaming, alignment assessment and safeguard testing. Reporting on the announcement says each company expects to invest at least $1 billion over five years. The arrangement is significant as evaluation infrastructure and governance, but does not itself establish improved model capability, safety performance, or independent reproduction of any model claim.
independently confirmedPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.4/10
17 Sept 2026AI for Science
GPT-6 Astra-assisted proof settles strong secretary conjecture for linear matroids
Bérczi, Dughmi, Livanos, Soto and Verdugo prove a 1/e guarantee for the matroid secretary problem on linear matroids and state that the main proof was obtained in a conversation with ChatGPT-6 Astra. A separately authored concurrent preprint by Abdi, Banihashem, Hajiaghayi and Mittal independently proves the same linear-matroid result via an essentially identical approach.
independently confirmedPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.8/10
17 Sept 2026AI for Science
GPT-6 Astra-assisted proof establishes expectation form of BHM conjecture
Yinfeng Zhu proves that paths maximize the expected range of integer-valued graph homomorphisms among connected bipartite graphs of fixed order, establishing the expectation form of the Benjamini-Häggström-Mossel conjecture and deriving the Loebl-Nešetřil-Reed conjecture as a corollary. The author states that the proof was obtained through interaction with GPT-6 Astra and that the main results were formalized and checked in Lean 4.
primary confirmedPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.8/10
17 Sept 2026AI for Science
GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra-assisted work sharpens trickle-down spectral-gap theorem
Xiaoyu Chen and Kuikui Liu give streamlined Bochner-method proofs of trickle-down spectral-gap results and quantitatively strengthen the Leake-Oveis Gharan theorem, resolving an open question. They state that the proofs were developed through interaction with GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra and note that Guo and Zhang independently obtained the same strengthening with a very similar argument, also found using GPT-5.6 Sol Ultra.
independently confirmedPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.7/10
17 Sept 2026Intelligence
Anthropic reports Claude leads 26% of its measured AI R&D work
Anthropic's R&D Automation Index reports that as of August 2026 Claude leads 26% of measured AI R&D work from high-level prompts under human supervision, while more than 90% is at least human-AI collaborative. Anthropic explicitly reports no measured subset at full autonomy and notes methodological limitations including use of its own models as judges.
primary confirmedPrimary source ↗
Relevance9.7/10
PRIMARY CONSTRAINTS
Why readiness is not higher
Long-horizon autonomous reliability
Long-horizon agent systems can now sustain multi-day engineering loops, but reliability outside structured feedback environments is still unproven.
Severity78
Automated AI R&D
AI can assist AI engineering, but the full research loop is not yet reliably autonomous.
Severity74
Robotic reliability & generalization
Robots can look impressive in demos while still requiring intervention in messy environments.
Severity70
LATEST PULSE
Interpretation stays separate
Daily Pulse — 18 Sep 2026
No canonical event falls inside this Daily's original time window after the full semantic-backlog recovery. This is a verified quiet window rather than an artifact of the Analyst outage. ASI Readiness remains 59.03 (0.00), Singularity Readiness 53.19 (0.00), with the 5Y/10Y ASI forecast unchanged at 30%/81%.
Pulse archive ↗