OBSERVATORY DEGRADED

Semantic review is behind discovery. Evidence and Pulse may be incomplete until the backlog is cleared.

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Last semantic import 19 Sept, 04:12

EVIDENCE REGISTER

The evidence archive

A chronological register of published signals. Source class, verification state, evidence quality and relevance remain visible before interpretation.

PUBLISHED RECORDS

141 matching evidence records

126–141 / 141
16 Aug 2026AI for Science

Talagrand convolution conjecture solved with AI-discovered proof

A new preprint claims a full proof of Talagrand's 1989 convolution conjecture on the Boolean hypercube. The authors state that the proof was discovered by the Odin Automatic AI Research Agent; they reorganized the final proofs. Independent mathematical review is still pending.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.1/10evidence 82/100
14 Aug 2026Intelligence

Anthropic reports significant internal AI-R&D speedups but says automated-R&D threshold is not met

Anthropic’s August 2026 first-party Risk Report says its current models are providing significant speedups to AI research and engineering, while explicitly concluding that they do not yet fully substitute for Anthropic researchers and have not clearly doubled the overall pace of progress. The report also names internally deployed Mythos-class systems used in the assessment.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDANTHROPICPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.4/10evidence 96/100
13 Aug 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

ChatGPT 5.6 Sol-assisted construction resolves elliptic regularity question negatively

Nam Q. Le, Qi Sun and Hung V. Tran construct uniformly elliptic nondivergence-form equations in dimension three whose bounded solutions have unbounded W1,1 variation, showing that no interior W1,p estimate depending only on ellipticity exists for p at least one and resolving negatively an open question raised by Nadirashvili, Tkachev and Vlăduţ. The authors state that the main results were obtained through chats with ChatGPT 5.6 Sol and that key strategies came from ChatGPT; they then reworked, rewrote and checked all arguments. The result remains without independent external proof reproduction.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance9.3/10evidence 89/100
13 Aug 2026Intelligence

DeepSeek V4 Pro reaches GA with a major agent-capability upgrade

DeepSeek released the GA version of V4 Pro on 13 August 2026 across app, web and API. DeepSeek reports substantial agent gains, including Terminal Bench 2.1 at 87.9, HLE at 42.7 without tools and 60.0 with tools, Toolathlon-Verified at 74.1 and DSBench-FullStack at 71.1. The API also adds native Responses API support and low/high/max thinking effort. This is a material frontier-model release, but independent evaluation is still needed before treating it as a new global capability ceiling.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDDEEPSEEK API DOCSPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.0/10evidence 88/100
12 Aug 2026Intelligence

Grok 4.6 launches with a material jump in frontier and agentic performance

SpaceXAI released Grok 4.6 on 12 August 2026. Independent reporting citing Artificial Analysis says the model improves roughly five points over Grok 4.5 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, lands around GPT-5.6 Sol overall, and is especially strong on agentic work while remaining materially cheaper than the top Anthropic models. This strengthens SpaceXAI's frontier position, but it does not currently establish a new absolute capability ceiling.

INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMEDSPACEXAI / ELON MUSK; CROSS-CHECKED VIA MARKETWATCH AND INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILYPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.5/10evidence 82/100
11 Aug 2026AI for Science

Long-horizon AI research system helps set new bounds on the Grothendieck constant

A human-AI research collaboration tightened both lower and upper bounds on the Grothendieck constant. The companion methodology paper states that the AI system discovered and first proved the new lower bound K_G >= 6π/11, later independently checked and revised by the human authors; the exact value of K_G remains open.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.4/10evidence 92/100
11 Aug 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

Claude-assisted Riemann-related result improves a critical-line bound to 67.2%

A Claude-assisted research workflow reportedly improved the proportion of non-trivial simple zeros shown to lie on the critical line from about 41.6% to 67.2%. This was a substantial partial result, not a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis. The work used roughly 31M output tokens, about 60 sub-agents, around 650 discarded strategies, thousands of computational checks and Lean formalization.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDANTHROPIC RESEARCH / VIBEMATHED
Relevance9.0/10
10 Aug 2026Intelligence

BDH-CQ sets a new ARC-AGI-1 cost-efficiency point with recurrent latent reasoning

Pathway reports that BDH-CQ, a proprietary 150-million-parameter post-Transformer system, combines in-context learning with recurrent latent reasoning and reaches 29.5% pass@2 on the public ARC-AGI-1 evaluation set. The reported operating point uses about 0.85 H200 GPU-seconds per task, corresponding to a computed inference cost of $0.00070 per task at the paper's hardware-price assumption. A documented black-box audit by external-affiliation co-authors reproduced the deployed system's 29.5% score without access to model weights.

INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.2/10evidence 78/100
07 Aug 2026AI for Science

WeatherNext Cyclones signals faster AI-enabled forecasting progress

The 7 August Pulse recorded WeatherNext Cyclones as roughly one day of additional warning and about a decade of meteorological progress, without a documented ASI forecast revision.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDORIGINAL SINGULARITY PULSE
Relevance8.0/10evidence 78/100
03 Aug 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

GPT-5.6 Sol-assisted construction gives counterexample to Connes' rigidity conjecture

Shuoxing Zhou constructs non-isomorphic ICC property-(T) groups with isomorphic group von Neumann algebras, giving a counterexample to Connes' rigidity conjecture for this class. The paper explicitly says the result was obtained with GPT-5.6 Sol assistance, independently of and concurrently with OpenAI work. The theorem and provenance are primary-source confirmed; independent specialist verification remains pending.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance9.4/10evidence 91/100
02 Aug 2026Robotics

Gemini Robotics 2 emerges as a major embodied-AI signal

The 2 August Pulse rated Gemini Robotics 2 at 8/10 but did not change the ASI forecast.

ANNOUNCEDORIGINAL SINGULARITY PULSE
Relevance8.0/10evidence 70/100
01 Aug 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

Astra reports 10 Lean-formalized mathematics results

Astra/OpenAI was recorded in the original Pulse as producing 10 mathematical results formalized in Lean, triggering the largest early ASI forecast revision in the archive.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDORIGINAL SINGULARITY PULSE
Relevance9.0/10evidence 85/100
20 Jul 2026AI for Science

GigaPath-Flash cuts whole-slide pathology compute while preserving most predictive performance

Microsoft Research, Providence and University of Washington report two open-weight pathology foundation models for population-scale research. GigaPath-Flash retains 97% of GigaPath's average slide-level performance with roughly 50 times less compute. GigaTIME-Flash reports sixfold higher speed and eightfold lower memory while matching or improving spatial-protein prediction across tested cohorts.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.1/10evidence 76/100
20 Jul 2026AI for Science

ChatGPT 5.6 authored a preprint proving full replica symmetry breaking at zero temperature

A preprint attributed by its submitter to ChatGPT 5.6 proves full replica symmetry breaking for the zero-field Sherrington–Kirkpatrick model at zero temperature. A catalog audit found that the accompanying Lean development is conditional on seven identified analytic inputs and is not an assumption-free verification.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance8.7/10evidence 64/100
20 Jul 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

Claude-assisted counterexample refutes the Jacobian Conjecture in dimensions n≥3

Levent Alpöge announced an explicit polynomial self-map of C^3 with constant nonzero Jacobian determinant that is not injective, refuting the Jacobian Conjecture for dimensions n≥3. Alpöge explicitly credited Claude Fable 5 with work leading to the counterexample. The result was rapidly independently checked in exact arithmetic and formally verified in Isabelle/HOL and Lean-derived work. The two-dimensional case remains open.

INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRMEDFORMAL / REPOSITORYPrimary source ↗
Relevance9.2/10evidence 98/100
08 May 2026AI for ScienceBreakthrough

ChatGPT 5.4 Pro autonomously proves and disproves two Bruhat-order conjectures

Colin Defant's revised paper on the MacNeille completion of Bruhat order proves a conjecture of Escobar, Klein and Weigandt and gives a counterexample to a conjecture of Hamaker and Reiner. The abstract states that those two results were obtained autonomously by ChatGPT 5.4 Pro and presents the paper as a case study in LLM-automated mathematical research. The underlying paper was first submitted in May and revised September 6; the recovered revision is primary-source confirmed but not independently externally reproduced.

PRIMARY CONFIRMEDPREPRINTPrimary source ↗
Relevance9.4/10evidence 89/100
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